BY BILL GREENER III
Republicans—for good reasons—are pretty giddy about the prospects for Election Day. Unless unemployment suddenly drops, there is just no precedent in American history for the election to result in anything other than a massive victory for Republicans. The mainstream media can rant all they want about the Tea Party and the party of ‘no’, but it will not change a thing in my opinion.
But , in addition to the issues of the economy, massive spending, and ObamaCare, another issue is emerging as salient and defining. I am talking about immigration. Depsite, our election-year euphoria, my fear is that we Republicans are failing to fully grasp and understand the power of a defining moment in American politics, a failure that could have long-term implications that are not good for our Party.
In 1964, after the death of John Kennedy, President Lyndon Johnson pushed hard for the passage of historic civil rights legislation. Some of the most vile, racist statements ever uttered came from a group of southern Democrats. In fact, the filibuster to defeat the legislation was in the hands of this group—Byrd and Robertson from Virginia, Morgan and Ervin from North Carolina, Russell and Talmadge from Georgia, Ellender and Long from Louisiana, Teague and Thurmond (still a Democrat) from South Carolina, Hill and Sparkman from Alabama, even Fulbright from Arkansas, and Eastland and Stennis from Mississippi.
There were a handful of Republicans who weren’t so sure the legislation was a good idea and did not believe in federal intervention as the bill proposed. But, when the cloture vote came, they wheeled in Senator Kuchel, a Republican from California, who proudly pointed to his eye as an indication he was in favor of ending debate. Non-southern Democrats and large numbers of Republicans were the reason the legislation became law. That is fact, and it would be great if Americans actually understood real history, but they don’t.
Since then, however, Black Americans have voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Why? The GOP candidate for president, Barry Goldwater—the very definition of an old-fashioned conservative—opposed the legislation in the name of protecting states rights. Yes, the southern Democrats used the same notion to justify their racist point of view. However, nobody at the time even intimated that Barry Goldwater had a racist bone in his body. It mattered not. Blacks came to believe that, at a defining moment, Democrats (because of Lyndon Johnson) liked them and Republicans (because of the views of Barry Goldwater) did not. From that point forward, we know what voter behavior has been. Blacks almost instantly began voting for the very southern Democrats—including George Wallace—who had opposed every civil rights law proposed. Faced with the choice of a white Democrat and a Black Republican, Blacks have consistently voted for the Democrat.
What does all this mean to us today? By large margins, we see voters wanting tough laws on immigration. They want our borders secured. They do not want those who have broken the law and/or ignore the law to be rewarded. Can we remember way back to 1994 when Pete Wilson was tough on immigration in his re-election campaign for Governor in California? He won a big victory. But, what else happened? Hispanics in California identified with Democrats. Republicans have been swamped in election after election at the statewide level, save for what transpired after the Gray Davis debacle. In other words, Hispanics in California decided (as Blacks had done in 1964) that Democrats liked them and Republicans did not.
Now, we have President Obama proposing legislation that is widely opposed. His Justice Department is suing to overturn the law in Arizona that Americans, as a whole, greatly like. Inside his own party, individual Members of Congress, Senators, and Governors are angry at the President. He seems to have isolated the Democrats as being liberal to the point of wanting to cram their ideology on a resistant public. Yet, my view is he is being smart as a fox.
It is likely true that in 2010 voters will rally to the Republican slant on the issue and reject what they see as the Democratic side of the issue. The question is what happens next? Maybe even in 2012 the issue will be so alive and so relevant that having the overall public side with Republicans can mean more victories. After that, I am worried disaster awaits my Party.
What history shows me is that the minority voters, once locked into place, stay locked into place. So, Democrats begin now with no worse than 10 percent advantage at the national level when an election starts—13 percent of the electorate in 2008 was Black. In 2008, nine percent was Hispanic, and they voted 2-1 for Obama. The Hispanic portion of the electorate will get larger. John McCain won the non-Hispanic white vote 56-43%. However, starting the game down 19-3, it was not enough (the remaining votes coming from Asians, etc.). Assume, for the minute, the combination of Blacks and Hispanics become 25 percent of the vote in the not too distant future (not unrealistic). If a Democrat candidate for President starts with a 22-3 advantage, do we really think that the Republican is likely to get 49 percent versus 27 percent for the Democrat of the other votes to be cast in many elections?
What happens is the minority vote gets locked into place while the non-Hispanic white vote does not. If Hispanics in America conclude Democrats are their friends and we Republicans are their enemy on a permanent basis, will someone please tell me how we make the math work? I am NOT arguing for weak immigration laws. I am arguing that what is said and done is something that is carefully thought out and involves Hispanics carrying the message. Otherwise, I simply do not see how the smiles on our faces in 2010 do not become permanent frowns later.
Editor’s Note: Bill Greener is a founding partner of Greener and Hook, a communications firm specializing in work for Republican candidates and private organizations facing public policy challenges. Formerly, he headed the political and communications divisions of the Republican National Committee, as well as serving as Convention Manager for the 1996 National Convention. Greener also has been an executive at International Paper and Wheelabrator Technologies.