Tag Archives: polls

Shooting the Messenger

BY JOHN FEEHERY
Reprinted from TheFeeheryTheory.com

I didn’t believe the polls in 2008. I thought there was a secret group of voters who would come out to vote and propel John McCain to the White House over Barack Obama.

I believed the polls in 2010 because I thought that the American people were all on board to reject the President’s signature achievement, Obamacare.

I didn’t believe the polls in 2012. I thought the methodology was wrong. How could they oversample Democrats so much and how could independent voters skew so much towards Romney and have him still losing? Continue reading →

Headwinds for Obama

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

There is almost no good news for President Barack Obama in the CNN/ORC poll that was released earlier this week.

As the President giggled and played rock, paper, scissors with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-8 Conference in Ireland, the bloom appears to have begun to come off the Obaman Rose as far as the American people are concerned.

This is one poll taken last week (Tuesday through Thursday) so it might not signal a trend, but it certainly won’t generate confidence in the West Wing. Continue reading →

Voters Understand Fiscal Cliff

BY STEVE BELL
Reprinted from the Bipartisan Policy Institute

In failing to address the foolishness of present policy, candidates make a comprehensive response less likely.

Center Forward recently released the results of a poll taken by Purple Insights, asking 1,000 likely voters how much they knew about the “fiscal cliff,” the massive increases in taxes and cuts in spending scheduled to occur within the first two days of January 2013. Continue reading →

Are You Better Off…

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

As the Democratic Party gathers in Charlotte, North Carolina this week to re-nominate Barack Obama, the big question Republicans are asking Americans to answer this week is: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

There is almost no metric that would allow a segment of the population to answer, “Yes.” But, before we get into the wrangling of the coming three days, let’s step back a bit.

Continue reading →

Romney Reality Differs from Perception

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

From Cleveland, Ohio
Midwestern Legislative Conference

Donna Brazile and I did our very popular “He said; She said” act in Cleveland for legislators from the Midwest. We will take the act somewhat further on the road next week when we reprise it in Edmonton, Alberta for the Western Legislative Conference.

The buzz among the political cognoscenti is how much damage the Romney campaign has suffered from the attacks on his time at Bain Capital. The problem is, there is no evidence – thus far – that the attacks have had any effect. Continue reading →

By The Numbers

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

We did this a couple of months ago, and I decided, as we are now within four months of election day, to take another look at the polling numbers of former Presidents in their first terms.

As of Sunday afternoon, President Obama’s job approval, according to Gallup, was 46%. His disapproval was also 46%. In the past half-century only George W. Bush has won re-election with an approval score of under 50%.

Let’s go to the chart.

Here’s the list of Presidential approval ratings at approximately the same point in their first terms going back to Lyndon Johnson: Continue reading →

Polls, Pundits, and Prognostications

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

I understand that national polls traditionally haven’t meant much, because voters in California and Missouri are not going to their local fire stations and high school cafeterias two weeks from tomorrow to vote in the Iowa caucuses.

But, with the advent of social media and the enormous attention being paid to the debates, the ebb and flow of support for one or another of the GOP candidates in national polls can’t help but have an effect on voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early states.

SIDEBAR

We’ve long since memorized the primaries that will be held in January. It’s time to begin committing to memory February’s contests:

Feb 4 Nevada (Caucus)
Feb 4-11 Maine (Caucus)
Feb 7 Colorado (Caucus)
Feb 7 Minnesota (Caucus)
Feb 28 Arizona (Primary)
Feb 28 Michigan (Primary)

END SIDEBAR

The biggest effect good national poll numbers is on fundraising. Donors in New York and California don’t typically decide on which campaign to support solely based on how they’re doing in Iowa or South Carolina, but in large part how they’re doing in polls reported by Gallup and the Associated Press. Continue reading →

#OWS

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

City officials from coast-to-coast have finally decided to live up to their responsibilities to enforce the law and have been evicting the Occupy (fill-in-the-blank) squatters from public spaces.

The District of Columbia has decided to allow the squatters to remain in McPherson Square Park because … well, maybe so the city won’t have to mow the grass until next Spring.

I am not totally unsympathetic to the general theory of the demonstrators: The deck is stacked in favor of the people who have the lion’s share of the chips because they already own the casino.

In the end, the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement was a pale shadow (how’s that for an oxymoron?) of the Arab Spring demonstrations.

Part of the problem for the OWS crowd was nobody paid much attention to them. I suppose people who actually work on Wall Street paid attention to people who were attempting to occupy it.

But Manhattan is a pretty big island and for most New Yorkers a bunch of rich kids from New Rochelle sleeping in tents and relieving themselves in garbage cans was not much of a reason to miss their morning bagel-and-a-schmear before they got to the office. Continue reading →

Newt Up, Newt Down, Never Count Newt Out

BY RICH GALEN
Reprinted from Mullings.com

I have mentioned to you before that when it comes to making political predictions I am exactly 50-50. I am wrong exactly as often as I am correct, thus you can’t make any money betting on what I say, nor betting against me.

As a case in point let me direct your attention to MULLINGS from May 20, 2011, in which I wrote: In the week or so since Newt formally announced that he was a candidate for President, his campaign has gone from sputtering to on the rocks. I, like just about everyone else inside the Beltway, declared his candidacy over and his quest for the Presidency dead.

Yeah. Well…

In a poll released late last week Mitt Romney was leading Republican candidates with 23%; but Newt Gingrich was right on his heels at 19% (just outside the margin of error which was 3.5% among registered voters in the poll). Herman Cain may be succumbing to both political gravity and the grave nature of the charges against him and was at 17 percent in this poll. Continue reading →

Perry Leads on All Fronts

BY RICH GALEN

Reprinted from Mullings.com

National polls measuring support during the primary season are suspect because we don’t have national primaries. We have state-by-state primaries and caucuses. A national poll measuring support five months ahead of the first caucus is beyond suspect. It is meaningless.

Having started out with that warning let me make another assertion: No matter how suspect, meaningless, pointless, or futile a poll might be it is still better to be in first place than it is to be way back in the pack. Continue reading →